This is apropos of nothing--and I'm going to admit up front that I have no real evidence to back this up whatsoever--but John McCain is going to lead or be tied with Barack Obama in most of the national and state polls, and then get blown out of the water.
It will be a sort of alternate Wilder Effect.
But it won't be because of race, but because of generational warfare.
This isn't just to say that "the kids" are going to turnout in record numbers (like we always expect) and sway the election. Youth turnout will be huge and probably influential in the end results. But I'm thinking more about the fact that compared to Senator Obama's calming, thoughtful and (on the stump) smooth presence is going to contrast very sharply with the significantly stiffer, more halting, and easily riled much older McCain. I think McCain will poll better than he will perform because in their private moments, they do not trust Senator McCain in a situation that calls for a cool response--a threat as opposed to an attack.
Rage, or fear, urges people to seek strong retributive leadership. Uncertainty urges us to seek a calm, reassuring voice. The county is at a moment of great uncertainty, in no small part because Generation X and Y are coming to political maturity, just as the Baby Boomers did between the 70s and 80s, culminating in the Clinton Presidency. Young families, new careers, and mountains of debt.
I won't sink to call it "ageism", because its not about his age, its about his disposition and understanding of leadership. It's also about what conservatism is all about: hierarchy and submission to authority. Senator Obama, when he is at his best, portrays sensibleness and thoughtfulness, and he represents a positive vision where government is "of the people" and therefore will serve them; now, the further he strays from this message towards the mushball center, as he has shown signs of doing, the more diluted his message becomes, paradoxically.
When you are nervous about the future, you respond much better to positive messages. You want to be reassured.
So, just a prediction: the polls will be close, but the results won't be. And it'll because John McCain is a just a bit too pissy. Basically.